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November Recap and December Outlook

Inflation has been making every area of our lives more expensive as the costs of the goods and services we use every day have skyrocketed. The Federal Reserve is attempting to lower inflation by using the bluntest tool in its arsenal – raising the key short-term interest rate.

The Democratic Party substantially beat expectations on Tuesday, already having clinched control of the US Senate for the next two years and, for now, hanging on to a (very slim) possibility of keeping control of the House of Representatives.  If they win the Georgia run-off in early December, their Senate majority will be one seat larger than it was for the past two years.

Election day is tomorrow and will bring results for key Senate, House, and Governors races from all around the country, plus local legislative races and more.  For the federal races, our projection is that the Republicans are essentially a slam-dunk to take back the House of Representatives (98% likely) and very likely to take back the Senate (about 80%).  

After nearly three years of the economic and financial market distortion due to COVID lockdowns, money printing, and massive government borrowing, some of these distortions are subsiding.  For example, the federal budget deficit in FY2021 was $2.78 trillion, but for FY2022 (which ended on 9/30), it fell to $1.375 trillion.

Most investors we talk to think the US is already in a recession or that a recession will start by the end of 2022.  We think they’re wrong on both counts.

"How's business going with everything going on in the markets these days?"

We've gotten that question more than a couple of times the last few months. And the truth is, it's an easy answer - business is booming.

"Well that's great to hear. Why do you think?"

Recent economic reports further undermine the politically-motivated argument from earlier this year that the US was already in a recession.  They also undercut the Fed’s hopes that inflation will soon subside.

We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet. The distortions of economic activity from lockdowns, massive deficit spending, and money printing are immense. It’s hard to imagine the US can unwind these policies and not have a recession.