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We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede.  At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 677.  What a time to buy!

We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead.  Instead, she’s in the middle of one of the most important races of her life. What we have been talking about – and will keep talking about until we think Americans understand it – is monetary policy and the Federal Reserve.

With less than three months left before the 2022 midterm elections, it is officially silly season when it comes to interpreting economic reports. For many analysts it’s pretty much all politics all the time, with data seen through a political lens first, and with real unbiased economic analysis coming maybe second, if ever.

The U.S. equity markets had the worst first half since 1970, entering bear territory. And then, in July, equities turned in the best performance since November of 2020, recovering over 9%.

That can all be described by one word: volatility.

With the Senate having passed a budget plan yesterday with only Democratic votes as well as a tie broken by Vice President Harris, it is only a matter of time before President Biden signs the first significant tax hike since the “Fiscal Cliff” tax hike in early 2013. What’s important to keep in mind is that it could have been worse…much, much worse.